The energy problem sooner or later overtakes every state on the planet. The reserves of the Earth's interior are not infinite, so planning for the future is the main task of research organizations. At the moment, mankind has not come up with an alternative to the basic resources necessary for the conduct of life.

The main concern of humanity

The energy problem affects every cell of society. The main purposes of using natural resources are:

• heating of housing;
• transportation of goods;
• use in industry.

Natural energy sources cannot fully cover the resulting efficiency from coal, oil, gas. The pressing issue of the sustainability of fossil-to-energy processing is also of concern to all research communities.

Conditions have changed

The energy problem was formed decades ago after a sharp increase in resource consumption associated with the development of the motor transport industry.

The crisis was growing, and it was concluded that oil reserves would last no more than 35 years. But this opinion changed after the discovery of new deposits. The development of the fuel industry has led to a deterioration in the ecology in the world, which has given rise to a new problem: how to preserve flora and fauna.

The energy problem is viewed not only as a matter of extraction and resource reserves, but also as a side effect of dirty fuel production. Because of the desire to possess deposits between countries, conflicts arise that develop into a protracted war. regions depends on the method of energy production, on access to it, the place of development and filling of bases for storing resources.

Solving the energy problem will help improve the situation in several sectors at once, which is important for all segments of the population. Ownership of the bulk of resources gives the opportunity to govern countries; it touches upon the movement's interest in the globalization of the economy.

Options for closing the question of the fuel crisis

The main ways of solving problems have already been studied by economists. So far, there is no real answer to this question. All options for overcoming the fuel crisis are long-lasting and designed for hundreds of years. But gradually humanity is realizing the need for drastic actions towards replacing traditional methods of energy production with environmentally friendly and more useful ones.

The problems of energy development will grow with the growth of manufacturability of production and transport. In some regions, there is already a shortage of resources in the energy sector. China, for example, has reached the limit in the development of the energy industry, and the UK is seeking to reduce this area to restore the ecological situation.

The main trend in the development of energy in the world is moving towards increasing the volume of energy supplies, which inevitably leads to a crisis. However, the countries affected by the fuel crisis of the 70s have already developed a mechanism to protect themselves from surges in the economy. Global energy saving measures have been taken, which are already yielding positive results.

Saving fuel consumption

The energy crisis is partly being addressed through conservation measures. It is economically calculated that a unit of saved fuel is cheaper by one third of that extracted from the bowels of the Earth. Therefore, at every enterprise on our planet, a mode of justified energy saving has been introduced. As a result, this approach leads to improved performance.

The global energy problem requires the unification of research institutions around the world. As a result of energy savings in the UK, economic indicators have doubled, and in the US - 2.5. As an alternative, developing countries are taking action to build energy-intensive industries.

The energy and raw materials problem is more acute in developing countries, where energy consumption increases with increasing living standards. Developed countries have already adapted to changing conditions and have developed a mechanism to protect against sudden surges in consumer demand. Therefore, their resource consumption indicators are optimal and do not change significantly.

Difficulties in the way of saving resources

When assessing energy costs, a whole range of energy problems is taken into account. One of the main ones is the cheapness of oil and gas, which prevents the introduction of environmentally friendly converters of natural energy (sun, water movement, ocean wind) into electricity. Technology makes a significant contribution to energy conservation. Scientists are constantly looking for more affordable and cost-effective ways to generate energy. These include electric vehicles, solar panels, batteries made from waste.

The most interesting ideas and inventions for the economy have already received approval from the residents of Germany, Switzerland, France, and Great Britain. By replacing fossil processing with clean energy converters, there was a shortage of resources. It is no longer necessary to speak of a global crisis due to limited reserves of minerals.

Energy substitution options

The task of research institutes on the way to solving the energy shortage in certain regions is to search for options for the development of technologies necessary to regulate resource imbalances. So, in the desert it is better to develop the production of electricity from the sun's rays, and in the rainy tropics they try to use hydroelectric power plants.

In order to maintain economic and environmental indicators at the proper level, first of all, they try to replace the use of primary resources: oil and coal. For society, natural gas and other alternative energy sources are more beneficial.

Most of the clean energy converters require colossal material costs for their implementation in everyday life. Developing countries are not yet ready for this. In part, the problem of energy shortage is solved by the even settlement of the inhabitants of megalopolises in free territories. This process should be accompanied by the construction of new environmentally friendly stations for the processing of natural energy into electricity and heat.

Harm from primary resources

The main threats to nature and man are oil production on the shelf, emissions of combustion products into the atmosphere, the results of chemical and atomic reactions, and open pit mining. These processes need to be stopped altogether; the solution may be the development of the scientific industry in lagging regions. Resource consumption grows with the development of society, overpopulation of the area and the opening of powerful industries.

Plan

1. Introduction

2) The world's energy problem

3) Ways to solve the raw material and energy problem

4) Alternative energy sources

5) Conclusion

6) Literature

Introduction

At present, the problems of the natural environment and its reproduction, the limited reserves of organic and mineral resources, are becoming increasingly important. This global problem is associated, first of all, with the limited availability of the planet's most important organic and mineral resources. Scientists warn about the possible depletion of known and available for use oil and gas reserves, as well as the depletion of other important resources: iron and copper ore, nickel, manganese, aluminum, chromium, etc.

There are indeed a number of natural restrictions in the world. So, if we take an estimate of the amount of fuel in three categories: explored, possible, probable, then coal will last for 600 years, oil - for 90, natural gas - for 50 uranium - for 27 years. In other words, all fuels in all categories will be burned in 800 years. It is assumed that by 2010 the demand for mineral raw materials in the world will increase by 3 times in comparison with the current level. Already, in a number of countries rich deposits have been developed to the end or are close to depletion. A similar situation is observed for other minerals. If energy production grows at an increasing rate, then all types of fuel used now will be spent in 130 years, that is, at the beginning of the XXII century.

The world's energy problem

* find a system of instruments that ensure appropriate investment and structural changes within countries;

* find politically acceptable methods of approval and support of their voters, who will also have to pay for the shifts both through taxes and lifestyle, despite the fact that some of the solutions may meet with resistance (for example, nuclear energy);

* to form an acceptable basis for interaction with other major players in the global energy market.

Global Environmental Energy Issues

Greenhouse effect. An increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere causes the so-called greenhouse effect, which is named after the overheating of plants in a greenhouse. Carbon dioxide plays the role of a film in the atmosphere. In recent years, a similar role for some other gases (CH4 and N2O) has become known. The amount of methane increases annually by 1%, carbon dioxide - by 0.4%, nitrous oxide - by 0.2%. Carbon dioxide is believed to be responsible for half of the greenhouse effect.

Air pollution. The negative impact of energy on the atmosphere is reflected in the form of solid particles, aerosols and chemical pollution. Chemical pollution is of particular importance. The main one is considered to be sulphurous gas released during the combustion of coal, shale, oil, which contain sulfur impurities. Some types of coal with a high sulfur content produce up to 1 ton of sulfur dioxide per 10 ton of coal burnt. Now the entire atmosphere of the globe is polluted with sulfur dioxide. Oxidation takes place to sulfuric anhydride, and the latter, together with rain, falls to the ground in the form of sulfuric acid. This precipitation is called acid rain. The same happens after the rain absorbs nitrogen dioxide - nitric acid is formed.

Ozone "holes". For the first time, a decrease in the thickness of the ozone layer was detected over Antarctica. This effect is the result of anthropogenic impact. Other ozone holes have now been discovered. At present, a decrease in the amount of ozone in the atmosphere over the entire planet is noticeable. It is 5-6% per decade in winter and 2-3% in summer. Some scientists believe that this is a manifestation of the action of freons (chlorofluoromethanes), but ozone is also destroyed by nitrogen oxide, which are emitted by energy enterprises.

Ways to solve the raw material and energy problem:

1. Decrease in production volumes;

2. Increase in the efficiency of mining and production;

3. Use of alternative energy sources;

Reducing production volumes is very problematic because the modern world needs more and more raw materials and energy, and their reduction will certainly turn into a global crisis. The increase in efficiency is also not very promising because for its implementation, large capital investments are required, and raw materials are not unlimited. Therefore, priority is given to alternative energy sources.

Raw material problem includes the construction at two levels - national and international (global) - of a mechanism that regulates the rational production, distribution and use of raw materials, as well as the development of a technological basis for achieving these goals. Energy problem carries the need for a balanced development of the structure of the energy balance and taking into account the limits of energy production, as well as the mechanism for distributing energy resources. Energy resources throughout the history of civilization have played an important role in its development. The rise of ancient civilizations was based on the energy resources of the mass of slaves (it is believed that 1 kWh of electricity is equivalent to the work of a person for 8 hours).

As a field of economics, energy encompasses energy resources, the generation, transformation, transmission and use of various types of energy. It is one of the main means of life support for mankind and at the same time causes depletion of non-renewable natural resources and approximately 50% of environmental pollution. The resource constraint of our planet makes energy security an acute problem. Indeed, if the environmental prospects of a civilization are made dependent on one factor other than "global environmental benefits", this factor will be energy resources. Mankind constantly used all new sources of energy: initially coal, then oil, later natural gas and atomic energy. Over the past century and a half, the use of these sources has allowed humanity to develop an economy of high achievements while simultaneously increasing the population of the Earth by four times.

On oil Among a variety of energy sources (coal, oil, gas, nuclear energy, hydroelectric power plants, wind and solar energy, bioenergy), 40% of the energy used has been accounted for in the last century. The second most important source of energy - gas accounted for 25%. Oil is expected to remain the leading source of energy by 2030.

In the energy sector, traditional and alternative components are distinguished. Traditional energy is based on the production of energy from hydrocarbon energy carriers (coal, oil, natural gas), as well as nuclear and hydropower. The possibilities of this type of energy are limited by the depletion of energy carriers and significant environmental pollution. The exception is hydropower, the use of which is accompanied by the flooding of large areas (especially during the construction of hydropower plants in flat conditions). In order to avoid future global nuclear catastrophes and for the sake of the survival of mankind, a general comprehensive reduction of nuclear danger is necessary, not only by stopping nuclear tests, non-proliferation of nuclear weapons and high nuclear technologies, but also by (maybe in the future) gradual abandonment of nuclear power plants.

In the scientific literature, three approaches to the use of atomic energy for peaceful purposes are recorded: 1) in some countries (Sweden, Norway, etc.) a program of conservation and dismantling of existing nuclear power plants is being implemented; 2) in others (Austria, Belgium, etc.) they completely abandoned the construction of nuclear power plants, since they are no longer considered as promising; 3) in third countries (China, Russia), the focus on the development of nuclear energy remains (with the main attention being paid to the development of measures to ensure nuclear safety). According to the World Atomic Association, today there are 443 nuclear reactors in the world, 62 power units are under construction and construction of another one and a half hundred is planned. The leader in nuclear energy is the United States, over a hundred reactors are operating here. The fastest growing peaceful atom is China. Beijing is building 27 reactors, and 50 nuclear power units are planned.

When choosing energy preferences, it should be borne in mind that the entire cycle of construction, operation and dismantling of nuclear power plants, including radioactive waste, poses a certain threat to nuclear safety [Globalistics, p. 1290-12941.

First, the risk of undermining nuclear safety (not only local, but also global) is associated with the very process of obtaining energy. Despite the fact that nuclear production is constantly monitored at all its stages, a certain leak of radioactive contamination into the environment still occurs, as a result of which the population is exposed to continuous exposure to low doses, which leads to an increase in oncological and genetic diseases.

Secondly, it is important to consider the limited service life of any nuclear power plant. It is assumed that at the beginning of the XXI century. due to obsolescence, the first large nuclear power plants will be shut down (the cost of these operations is equal to 50-100% of the cost of their construction).

Thirdly, the problem of ensuring long-term environmentally safe storage of radioactive waste seems to be no less difficult.

Fourth, the greatest threat to nuclear safety is the potential for an accident at a nuclear power plant. By the beginning of the XXI century. more than 150 accidents at nuclear power plants with radioactivity leaks have already been recorded. The accident at the Fukushima nuclear power plant in Japan (2011) has again put on the agenda the issue of the safety of the peaceful atom and may have a negative impact on the entire nuclear energy industry in the world, although it is too early to judge the long-term consequences. The world needs an energy alternative to the peaceful atom. Of course, additional safety standards will be developed, which, in turn, will increase the cost of building nuclear facilities.

Experts believe that if the world community has more than 1000 reactors, then every 10 years a severe accident is likely to be expected. To ensure nuclear safety, effective international control is required (the role of the IAEA is increasing), especially in the context of the massive privatization of the nuclear energy sector in the world, when state control over it is significantly weakening. In these conditions, it is necessary to revise the previous approaches to traditional and master new technologies for obtaining energy from alternative sources, which, possibly, will begin to play in the XXI century. significant role.

Thus, China is increasing its consumption of its main sources of fuel. According to the new five-year development plan of China, by 2015 gas consumption in this country will grow from 100 billion to 250 billion cubic meters per year. “Golden times” have come for gas on the world energy market, as well as for its producers. Consumption is growing in all regions of the world, especially in Southeast Asia. However, new projects for its production are also being developed there. In the Asia-Pacific region, production capacities of up to 90 billion cubic meters of gas per year will soon appear, capacities for 60 billion cubic meters of production are already under construction. The emergence in the future and atypical sources of gas is not excluded. Shale gas is already being produced in the United States and Canada. China, Indonesia and Australia contain large quantities of coalbed methane. The demand for oil as the main energy raw material remains high. In 2010, Russia received about $ 230 billion from the sale of energy resources abroad. [Contemporary world politics; Utkin].

Alternative energy sources are opposed to traditional energy as more environmentally friendly and represent a collective concept covering renewable energy sources (heat pumps, wind energy, solar energy, tidal energy, biotechnological processes). They are becoming more economically viable as the cost of solar panels has declined in recent decades and this trend is expected to continue. The development of alternative energy is stimulated in Japan (solar energy), Brazil (the adopted program of financial support for the production of ethyl alcohol from sugar cane made it possible to replace this fuel with half of the gasoline consumed by the country's cars) and other countries.

Historical experience has made it possible to single out a number of main knots that link energy and world politics. First of all,hypertrophied dependence of the energy sector in many countries on one or two energy sources. Political contradictions between states can be aggravated due to the physical shortage of energy sources, sharp fluctuations in their prices, as well as due to the environmental consequences of the energy carriers used. Secondly, the danger of a large physical volume of world energy trade. The danger lies in the vulnerability of the gigantic international transport infrastructure. About a third of the primary resources, including 50% of all crude oil production, hundreds of millions of tons of coal, and tens of billions of cubic meters of natural gas, are supplied through the channels of world trade. In general, the length of the main oil pipelines of 27 countries (covered by UN statistics) reaches 436 thousand km. More than 2 billion tons of oil and oil products are pumped through this pipeline network annually. The sprawl and vulnerability of the international energy transport infrastructure means that maintaining and protecting all is considered a major challenge by the governments of several countries.

Thirdly, another group of problems is distinguished, which is associated with contradictions between the supplier and the recipient of energy resources, regional conflicts. The resulting uncertainty in the reliability of existing transport communications is increasingly becoming the rationale for new naval and air force programs, military-political actions carried out at the international level.

Fourth, the growing need for energy and the simultaneous difficulty of meeting this need make energy a subject of acute political struggle. In the future, energy terror may become a means of threat to democratic reforms, individual rights, global peace and security.

The widespread introduction of energy-saving technologies and the active development of alternative energy sources since the 1970s. have not rid the world of the dominant role of hydrocarbons. Moreover, the problem of oil and gas deficit is acquiring threatening features, periodically giving rise to talks about approaching a critical point.

Renewable energies such as solar, nuclear fusion, bioenergy and wind power will become critical in the future. However, energy innovation will require a multi-million dollar investment, and if new energy solutions are not implemented quickly enough, labor productivity and associated economic growth will decline.

Energy that is safe for the world and mankind should include three main areas: 1) a qualitative leap forward in reducing losses in the extraction, production, transportation, transformation and consumption of energy resources; 2) creation and decisive implementation of energy-saving technologies, machinery and consumer goods; 3) active development and implementation of renewable energy sources and energy carriers (sun, biomass, rivers, wind, geothermal sources, energy resources of the seas and oceans).

However, since 1973, the ratio between primary and non-primary energy sources has remained virtually unchanged. According to the calculations of the International Energy Agency (IEL), it will change slightly by 2030. According to various estimates, renewable, alternative and other unconventional energy will account for from 11.4 to 13.5% of the world's energy supply, with oil and gas by 2030 will provide more than half of the energy needs [Modern world politics; Utkin]. Since the raw material base of highly developed countries and their transnational companies is being depleted, the weight of raw material countries is growing, in whose hands is a very important strategic resource of world politics. This state of affairs leads to an increase in the potential for contradictions and conflicts. Reducing it requires discretion and flexibility from those involved in politics. The political struggle for resources can be significantly aggravated due to the growing readiness of a number of countries in the world to rely on force to solve their energy problems. In this case, environmental, resource and global security in general may be undermined, which for some time will negatively affect the effectiveness of international efforts to implement the sustainable development strategy and may even block them.

Today human civilization can exist only by producing and consuming a huge, constantly increasing amount of energy. Before the start of the industrial revolution at the turn of the XVIII-XIX centuries. people used almost only renewable energy sources - the energy of water, wind, vegetable fuel.

Industrial technological development required predominantly non-renewable energy resources - first coal, and then oil and gas. Both coal, oil and gas are hydrocarbon fuels used in industrial and agricultural production, in transport, and in everyday life. Therefore, the world energy of the 20th and early 21st centuries was and remains to a large extent hydrocarbon.

All types of hydrocarbon raw materials are contained in the earth's interior, albeit in huge, but still limited quantities, and can be depleted. Members of the Club of Rome back in the 60s of the XX century. posed the question: what will happen to humanity after the onset of this hypothetical possibility?

Today the essence of the global energy problem is as follows. Energy consumption in the world has continued to grow over the past decades, for example, over 1980-2005. it increased by 60%, and, according to preliminary calculations, by 2030 it will grow by another 50%. So far, hydrocarbon energy sources prevail in the world energy balance, although there is an increase in consumption of other sources. Compared with the 70s of the XX century. in the middle of the first decade of the XXI century. the share of nuclear energy increased 6 times, and hydropower - 1.5 times. The share of energy obtained through the use of oil during the same period decreased from 46.1% to 34.4%. However, in the energy balance of different countries and regions of the world, the role of oil as an energy source is not the same. While in North and South America, Africa and especially in the Middle East it is higher than the world average, in Europe, the post-Soviet space and the Asia-Pacific region, the share of oil does not exceed 30% of all energy sources used.

The emergence of the global energy problem was associated with the depletion of the world's proven oil reserves. But in reality, in parallel with the growth of consumption and production of oil, the volumes of its proven reserves also grew. According to data for 1989, such proven reserves should have been enough for 42 years. But even in 2007, when oil production increased significantly, according to experts, the explored reserves should have been enough for the same 42 years. This was due to the improvement of methods and technologies for the exploration and production of oil, the development of new oil-bearing areas. Today, the so-called "cheap oil" is still produced and consumed, which lies in reservoirs accessible to modern technology. This oil is called "conventional" as opposed to "non-conventional", occurring at great depths, contained in oil sands, bituminous shale. With modern technologies, the production of unconventional oil is unprofitable and is not carried out in large volumes. The development of such oil fields is a matter of the future, perhaps not very distant. While the needs of humanity are provided by conventional oil. But the availability of its sources in different countries also differs. In the most economically developed countries of the world, the availability of cheap oil reserves is decreasing, and the dependence of such countries on its imports increases even with a decrease in the consumption of this energy carrier.

Consumption of oil is constantly growing in the two most populous countries in the world - China and India. Moreover, both countries do not have their own large proven oil reserves and are becoming very large importers of it. Over the first decade of this century, oil consumption in China has doubled, and in India by half. So far, the share of oil in the energy balance of China and India is not large, but it will grow steadily, if only due to the growth of the car fleet of these countries. Until recently, the PRC did not produce its own passenger cars; today, in their production, China lags behind only the United States and, quite likely, will soon overtake them.

More and more cars produced in the country are sold on the domestic market. At a slower pace, but also steadily increasing the level of motorization in India. Chinese and Indian factors will influence world oil prices, and these countries will show increasing interest in the potential sources of this energy carrier in various regions.

The role of many countries in Africa, Latin America and the post-Soviet space will grow in the world oil market, and therefore in world politics, in addition to the countries of the Middle East. As the sources of conventional oil on land are depleted, increasing geopolitical and economic interest will arouse the sea shelf, as well as the Arctic basin, in the depths of which large reserves of hydrocarbons are concentrated, not only oil, but also gas.

Until now, gas has been of great importance for the economy and energy of certain countries of the world. If in the countries of the Middle East gas accounts for 45% of energy consumption, in Europe and the post-Soviet space - 30%, then in the Asia-Pacific region only 10%. Meanwhile, gas has an advantage over other hydrocarbons, since it is more environmentally friendly than oil and especially coal.

The largest natural gas field belongs to Russia, which accounts for 25% of its world explored reserves. Other major "gas powers" are Iran and Qatar. Apart from them, Algeria, Libya, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Oman and a number of other countries play a significant role in the world gas market.

Compared to oil, gas transportation is more complex. Most of the oil is delivered to consumers via pipelines, while gas transportation routes are more diversified. The situation may change even more in the case of the widespread use of gas liquefaction technologies, which are still expensive and not widely used. However, according to experts, gas reserves should last for a much longer period than oil reserves.

The world's proven reserves of coal are even more extensive. It is coal that remains the main type of energy resources used in the APR. There, its share in the energy balance is 50%. And in China, this figure reaches 70%. The main problem is that when coal is burned, a huge amount of harmful substances is emitted into the atmosphere. So far, coal is the "dirtiest" of all types of hydrocarbon fuels. Although the situation is gradually changing, more environmentally friendly and economically more attractive technologies for its use are emerging, especially in the energy sector. According to experts' forecasts, in twenty years the volume of electricity generated by using coal will double. However, we are not talking about replacing other hydrocarbons with coal - oil and gas.

In contrast to the alarmist forecasts of the Club of Rome, the modern balanced view of the prospects for solving the global energy problem is more optimistic. Interest in nuclear energy is on the rise again. If, however, economically viable technologies for producing industrial volumes of energy through thermonuclear fusion are developed, then humanity will receive an almost inexhaustible source of electricity. Fusion energy can be supplemented with hydrogen energy, which is predicted to have a great future. One way or another, the current energy sources will be found in a few decades quite effective replacement. But during the first half of the XXI century. the energy problem will exist both at the global and regional levels of world politics. The controversy over ways to ensure energy security is escalating today. Despite the fact that the very need for such provision is beyond doubt. Experts and energy consumers have different ideas about the ways and means of achieving this goal.

Ministry of Agriculture and Food of the Russian Federation

FGOU VPO Ural State Agricultural Academy

Department of Ecology and Zohygiene

Ecology Abstract:

Energy problems of humanity

Artist: ANTONiO

student FTZH 212T

Head: Lopaeva

Nadezhda Leonidovna

Yekaterinburg 2007

Introduction. 3

Energy: forecast from the perspective of sustainable development of mankind. five

Unconventional energy sources. eleven

Energy of sun. 12

Wind energy. fifteen

Thermal energy of the earth. eighteen

Energy of inland waters. 19

Biomass energy .. 20

Conclusion. 21

Literature. 23

Introduction

Now, as never before, the question has arisen about what the future of the planet will be in terms of energy. What awaits humanity - energy hunger or energy abundance? In newspapers and various magazines, articles about the energy crisis are more and more common. Because of oil, wars arise, states flourish and become poorer, and governments change. The reports on the launch of new installations or on new inventions in the field of energy began to be classified as newspaper sensations. Gigantic energy programs are being developed, the implementation of which will require enormous efforts and enormous material costs.

If at the end of the 19th century energy played, in general, an auxiliary and insignificant role in the world balance, then already in 1930 the world produced about 300 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity. Over time - huge numbers, huge growth rates! And all the same, there will be little energy - the needs for it grow even faster. The level of material, and, ultimately, the spiritual culture of people is in direct proportion to the amount of energy at their disposal.

To mine ore, smelt metal out of it, build a house, do any thing, you need to expend energy. And human needs are growing all the time, and there are more and more people. So what is the stop for? Scientists and inventors have long developed numerous ways of producing energy, primarily electrical. Then let's build more and more power plants, and there will be as much energy as needed! Such a seemingly obvious solution to a complex problem, it turns out, is fraught with many pitfalls. Relentless laws of nature assert that you can get energy suitable for use only by transforming it from other forms.

Perpetual motion machines, supposedly producing energy and not taking it from anywhere, unfortunately, are impossible. And the structure of the world energy economy to date has developed in such a way that four out of every five kilowatts produced are obtained, in principle, in the same way that primitive man used for warming, that is, when fuel is burned, or when chemical energy stored in it is used, it is converted into electric at thermal power plants.

True, the methods of fuel combustion have become much more complicated and perfect. Increased demands on environmental protection required a new approach to energy. Prominent scientists and specialists in various fields took part in the development of the Energy Program. Using the latest mathematical models, electronic computers have calculated several hundred variants of the structure of the future energy balance. Fundamental decisions were found that determined the energy development strategy for the coming decades. Although the energy sector in the near future will still be based on non-renewable thermal energy, its structure will change. The use of oil should be reduced. The production of electricity at nuclear power plants will increase significantly.

Energy: forecast from the perspective of sustainable development of mankind

According to what laws will the world's energy industry develop in the future, based on the UN Concept of Sustainable Development of Humanity? The results of the research of Irkutsk scientists, their comparison with the works of other authors made it possible to establish a number of general patterns and features.

The concept of sustainable human development, formulated at the 1992 UN Conference in Rio de Janeiro, undoubtedly affects energy. The Conference showed that humanity cannot continue to develop in the traditional way, which is characterized by the irrational use of natural resources and a progressive negative impact on the environment. If developing countries follow the same path that developed countries achieved their prosperity, then a global environmental catastrophe will be inevitable.

The concept of sustainable development is based on the objective necessity (as well as the right and inevitability) of the socio-economic development of the Third World countries. The developed countries could, apparently, "come to terms" (at least for some time) with the achieved level of well-being and consumption of the planet's resources. However, it is not just about preserving the environment and the conditions for the existence of mankind, but also about a simultaneous rise in the socio-economic level of developing countries ("South") and its approach to the level of developed countries ("North").

The requirements for sustainable development energy will, of course, be broader than those for clean energy. The requirements for the inexhaustibility of the energy resources used and environmental cleanliness, laid down in the concept of an ecologically clean energy system, satisfy two most important principles of sustainable development - respect for the interests of future generations and the preservation of the environment. Analyzing the rest of the principles and features of the concept of sustainable development, we can conclude that in this case, at least two additional requirements should be presented to the energy sector:

Ensuring energy consumption (including energy services to the population) not lower than a certain social minimum;

The development of national energy (as well as the economy) should be mutually coordinated with its development at the regional and global levels.

The first follows from the principles of the priority of social factors and the provision of social justice: in order to realize the right of people to a healthy and fruitful life, to reduce the gap in the living standards of the peoples of the world, to eradicate poverty and poverty, it is necessary to ensure a certain subsistence minimum, including meeting the minimum necessary needs for energy of the population and the economy.

The second requirement is related to the global nature of the impending environmental catastrophe and the need for coordinated actions by the entire world community to eliminate this threat. Even countries that have sufficient energy resources of their own, such as Russia, cannot plan their energy development in isolation due to the need to take into account global and regional environmental and economic constraints.

1998-2000 ISEM SB RAS carried out research on the prospects for the development of energy in the world and its regions in the 21st century, in which, along with the usually set goals, to determine long-term trends in the development of energy, rational directions of scientific and technological progress, etc. an attempt was made to test the obtained options for the development of the energy sector "for sustainability", i.e. for compliance with the conditions and requirements of sustainable development. At the same time, in contrast to the development options that were developed earlier according to the principle of "what will happen if ...", the authors tried to offer, as possible, a plausible forecast of the development of energy in the world and its regions in the 21st century. With all its conventions, a more realistic idea of \u200b\u200bthe future of energy, its possible impact on the environment, the necessary economic costs, etc. is given.

The general scheme of these studies is largely traditional: the use of mathematical models for which information is prepared on energy needs, resources, technologies, and limitations. To take into account the uncertainty of information, primarily on energy needs and restrictions, a set of scenarios for the future conditions of energy development is formed. The results of calculations on models are then analyzed with appropriate conclusions and recommendations.

The main research tool was the Global Energy Model GEM-10R. This model is optimization, linear, static, multi-regional. As a rule, the world was divided into 10 regions: North America, Europe, the countries of the former USSR, Latin America, China, etc. The model optimizes the energy structure of all regions at the same time, taking into account the export-import of fuel and energy over 25-year intervals - 2025, 2050, 2075 and 2100 The entire technological chain is being optimized, starting with the extraction (or production) of primary energy resources, and ending with technologies for the production of four types of final energy (electrical, thermal, mechanical and chemical). The model presents several hundred technologies for the production, processing, transport and consumption of primary energy resources and secondary energy resources. Provides environmental regional and global restrictions (on emissions of СО 2, SO 2 and particulate matter), restrictions on technology development, calculation of costs for the development and operation of regional energy, determination of dual estimates, etc. Primary energy resources (including renewable) in regions are set with division into 4-9 cost categories.

The analysis of the results showed that the obtained options for the development of energy in the world and regions are still difficult to implement and do not fully meet the requirements and conditions of sustainable development of the world in socio-economic aspects. In particular, the considered level of energy consumption appeared, on the one hand, to be difficult to achieve, and on the other hand, it did not provide the desired approach of developing countries to developed countries in terms of per capita energy consumption and economic development (specific GDP). In this regard, a new forecast of energy consumption (reduced) was carried out on the assumption of a higher rate of decline in the energy intensity of GDP and the provision of economic assistance from developed countries to developing countries.

The high level of energy consumption is determined on the basis of specific GDP, which basically corresponds to the forecasts of the World Bank. At the same time, at the end of the 21st century, developing countries will only reach the current level of GDP of developed countries, i.e. the lag will be about 100 years. In the case of low energy consumption, the amount of assistance from developed countries to developing countries was adopted based on the indicators discussed in Rio de Janeiro: about 0.7% of the GDP of developed countries, or 100-125 billion dollars. in year. At the same time, GDP growth in developed countries decreases slightly, while in developing countries it increases. On average, the world per capita GDP in this variant increases, which indicates the advisability of providing such assistance from the point of view of all mankind.

Per capita energy consumption in the low variant in industrialized countries will stabilize, in developing countries it will increase by the end of the century by about 2.5 times, and on average around the world - by 1.5 times compared to 1990. The absolute world consumption of final energy (from taking into account population growth) will increase by the end of the beginning of the century, according to the high forecast, approximately 3.5 times, according to the low - 2.5 times.

The use of certain types of primary energy resources is characterized by the following features. In all scenarios, oil is consumed approximately the same - in 2050 its production peak is reached, and by 2100 cheap resources (the first five cost categories) are completely or almost completely depleted. This steady trend is due to the high efficiency of oil for the production of mechanical and chemical energy, as well as heat and peak electricity. At the end of the century, oil is being replaced by synthetic fuels (primarily from coal).

The production of natural gas has been continuously increasing throughout the century, reaching a maximum at the end. The two most expensive categories (unconventional methane and methane hydrates) turned out to be uncompetitive. Gas is used to produce all kinds of final energy, but most of all for heat production.

Coal and nuclear energy are subject to the greatest changes depending on the imposed restrictions. Being approximately equally economical, they substitute for each other, especially in "extreme" scenarios. They are mostly used in power plants. A significant portion of coal is converted into synthetic motor fuel in the second half of the century, and nuclear energy is used on a large scale to produce hydrogen in scenarios with severe CO 2 emissions.

The use of renewable energy sources differs significantly in different scenarios. Only traditional hydropower and biomass are used sustainably, as well as cheap wind resources. The rest of the renewable energy sources are the most expensive resources, close the energy balance and develop as needed.

It is interesting to analyze the cost of global energy in different scenarios. They are least of all, naturally, in the last two scenarios with low power consumption and moderate restrictions. By the end of the century, they have increased by about 4 times compared to 1990. The highest costs were obtained in the scenario with increased energy consumption and severe restrictions. At the end of the century, they are 10 times higher than the 1990 costs and 2.5 times the costs in the latest scenarios.

It should be noted that the introduction of a moratorium on nuclear power in the absence of restrictions on CO2 emissions increases costs by only 2%, which is explained by the approximate equal efficiency of nuclear power plants and coal-fired power plants. However, if, with a moratorium on nuclear power, strict restrictions on CO 2 emissions are introduced, the cost of power generation will almost double.

Consequently, the "costs" of a nuclear moratorium and restrictions on CO 2 emissions are very high. The analysis showed that the costs of reducing СО 2 emissions can amount to 1-2% of world GDP, i.e. they turn out to be comparable to the expected damage from climate change of the planet (with warming by several degrees). This gives grounds to speak of the admissibility (or even the need) of softening the restrictions on CO2 emissions. In fact, it is required to minimize the cost of reducing CO 2 emissions and damages from climate change (which, of course, is an extremely difficult task).

It is very important that the additional costs of reducing CO 2 emissions should be borne mainly by developing countries. Meanwhile, these countries, on the one hand, are not guilty of the situation with the greenhouse effect, and on the other hand, they simply do not have such funds. Obtaining these funds from developed countries will undoubtedly cause great difficulties and this is one of the most serious problems in achieving sustainable development.

In the 21st century, we are soberly aware of the realities of the third millennium. Unfortunately, the reserves of oil, gas, coal are by no means endless. It took nature millions of years to create these reserves, and they will be consumed in hundreds. Today the world began to think seriously about how to prevent the predatory plunder of earthly wealth. Indeed, only under this condition can the fuel reserves last for centuries. Unfortunately, many oil-producing countries live today. They mercilessly spend the oil reserves donated to them by nature. What will happen then, and this will happen sooner or later, when the oil and gas fields are exhausted? The likelihood of an imminent depletion of world fuel reserves, as well as the deterioration of the environmental situation in the world (oil refining and quite frequent accidents during its transportation pose a real threat to the environment) made people think about other types of fuel that can replace oil and gas.

Now in the world more and more scientists and engineers are looking for new, unconventional sources that could take on at least some of the concerns of supplying mankind with energy. Unconventional renewable energy sources include solar, wind, geothermal, biomass, and ocean energy.

Energy of sun

Recently, interest in the problem of using solar energy has increased dramatically, and although this source is also renewable, the attention paid to it around the world forces us to consider its possibilities separately. The potentialities of energy based on the use of direct solar radiation are extremely large. Note that the use of only 0.0125% of this amount of solar energy could provide all the current needs of the world energy, and the use of 0.5% could fully cover the needs for the future. Unfortunately, it is unlikely that these huge potential resources will ever be realized on a large scale. One of the most serious obstacles to this implementation is the low intensity of solar radiation.

Even under the best atmospheric conditions (southern latitudes, clear skies), the solar radiation flux is no more than 250 W / m2. Therefore, in order for collectors of solar radiation to "collect" the energy necessary to meet all the needs of mankind in a year, they must be located on an area of \u200b\u200b130,000 km 2! The need to use huge collectors, in addition, entails significant material costs. The simplest collector of solar radiation is a blackened metal sheet, inside of which are pipes with a circulating liquid in it. Heated by solar energy absorbed by the collector, the liquid is supplied for direct use. According to calculations, the manufacture of solar collectors with an area of \u200b\u200b1 km 2 requires approximately 10 4 tons of aluminum. The proven world reserves of this metal are estimated at 1.17 * 10 9 tons.

It is clear that there are various factors limiting the power of solar energy. Suppose that in the future it will be possible to use not only aluminum, but also other materials for the manufacture of collectors. Will the situation change in this case? We will proceed from the fact that at a separate phase of energy development (after 2100) all the world's energy needs will be met by solar energy. Within the framework of this model, it can be estimated that in this case it will be necessary to "collect" solar energy over an area from 1 * 10 6 to 3 * 10 6 km 2. At the same time, the total area of \u200b\u200barable land in the world today is 13 * 10 6 km 2. Solar energy is one of the most material-intensive types of energy production. Large-scale use of solar energy entails a gigantic increase in the need for materials and, consequently, labor resources for the extraction of raw materials, their enrichment, the production of materials, the manufacture of heliostats, collectors, and other equipment, and their transportation. Calculations show that it will take 10,000 to 40,000 man-hours to generate 1 MW of electricity per year using solar energy.

In traditional fossil fuel power generation this figure is 200-500 man-hours. For the time being, electricity generated by the sun's rays is much more expensive than conventional energy. Scientists hope that the experiments they will conduct on experimental installations and stations will help solve not only technical, but also economic problems.

The first attempts to use solar energy on a commercial basis date back to the 80s of the last century. The largest success in this area was achieved by Loose Industries (USA). In December 1989, she put into operation a solar-gas station with a capacity of 80 MW. Here, in California, in 1994 another 480 MW of electric power was introduced, moreover, the cost of 1 kW / h of energy is 7-8 cents. This is lower than traditional stations. At night and in winter, energy is mainly provided by gas, and in summer and daytime by the sun. A power plant in California has demonstrated that gas and the sun, as the main sources of energy for the near future, can effectively complement each other. Therefore, it is not accidental to conclude that various types of liquid or gaseous fuels should act as a partner for solar energy. The most likely “candidate” is hydrogen.

Its production using solar energy, for example, by electrolysis of water, can be quite cheap, and the gas itself, which has a high calorific value, is easy to transport and store for a long time. Hence the conclusion: the most economical possibility of using solar energy, which is visible today, is to direct it to obtain secondary types of energy in the solar regions of the globe. The resulting liquid or gaseous fuel can be pumped through pipelines or transported by tankers to other areas. The rapid development of solar energy became possible due to the decrease in the cost of photovoltaic converters per 1 W of installed power from $ 1000 in 1970 to $ 3-5 in 1997 and an increase in their efficiency from 5 to 18%. Reducing the cost of a solar watt to 50 cents will allow solar plants to compete with other autonomous energy sources, for example, diesel power plants.

Wind energy

The energy of the moving air masses is enormous. The reserves of wind energy are more than a hundred times higher than the reserves of hydropower of all rivers on the planet. The winds blowing across the vastness of our country could easily satisfy all its electricity needs! Climatic conditions make it possible to develop wind energy on a vast territory from our western borders to the banks of the Yenisei. The northern regions of the country along the coast of the Arctic Ocean are rich in wind energy, where it is especially necessary for courageous people living in these richest regions. Why is such a plentiful, affordable and ecologically clean source of energy so poorly used? Today, wind motors only cover one thousandth of the world's energy needs. Technology of the 20th century opened up completely new opportunities for wind energy, the task of which has become different - to generate electricity. At the beginning of the century N.E. Zhukovsky developed a theory of a wind turbine, on the basis of which high-performance installations could be created, capable of receiving energy from the weakest breeze. Many wind turbine projects have emerged that are incomparably more advanced than the old windmills. In new projects, the achievements of many branches of knowledge are used. Nowadays, aircraft specialists who are able to choose the most appropriate blade profile and study it in a wind tunnel are involved in the creation of wind wheel structures - the heart of any wind power plant. Through the efforts of scientists and engineers, a wide variety of designs of modern wind turbines have been created.

The first bladed machine to use wind energy was the sail. A sail and a wind turbine, apart from the same energy source, share the same principle used. Studies by Yu. S. Kryuchkov showed that a sail can be represented as a wind turbine with an infinite wheel diameter. The sail is the most advanced vane machine, with the highest efficiency, which directly uses wind energy for propulsion.

Wind power, using wind turbines and wind carriages, is now being revived, primarily in land-based installations. Commercial installations have already been built and are in operation in the United States. The projects are half funded from the state budget. The second half is invested by future clean energy consumers.

The first developments in the theory of wind turbines date back to 1918. V. Zalevsky became interested in wind turbines and aviation at the same time. He began to create a complete theory of the windmill and came up with several theoretical positions that a wind turbine should meet.

At the beginning of the twentieth century, interest in propellers and wind turbines was not isolated from the general trends of the time - to use the wind wherever possible. Initially, wind turbines were most widely used in agriculture. The propeller was used to drive ship machinery. On the world famous "Frame" he rotated the dynamo. On sailboats, windmills set in motion pumps and anchor mechanisms.

By the beginning of the last century, about 2,500 thousand wind turbines with a total capacity of one million kilowatts were rotating in Russia. After 1917, the mills were left without owners and gradually collapsed. True, attempts were made to use wind energy on a scientific and state basis. In 1931, near Yalta, the largest wind power plant with a capacity of 100 kW was built at that time, and later a project of a 5000 kW unit was developed. But it was not possible to implement it, since the Institute of Wind Energy, which dealt with this problem, was closed.

In the USA, by 1940, a wind turbine with a capacity of 1250 kW was built. By the end of the war, one of its blades was damaged. They did not even begin to repair it - economists calculated that it was more profitable to use a conventional diesel power plant. Further investigations of this facility were terminated.

The unsuccessful attempts to use wind energy in large-scale power generation in the 1940s were not accidental. Oil remained relatively cheap, specific capital investments in large thermal power plants dropped sharply, and the development of hydropower, as it seemed then, guarantees both low prices and satisfactory environmental friendliness.

A significant disadvantage of wind energy is its variability over time, but it can be compensated for by the location of the wind turbines. If several dozen large wind turbines are combined in full autonomy, their average power will be constant. In the presence of other energy sources, the wind generator can supplement the existing ones. Finally, mechanical energy can be obtained directly from the wind turbine.

Thermal energy of the earth

For a long time people have known about the spontaneous manifestations of gigantic energy lurking in the bowels of the globe. The power of the eruption is many times greater than the power of the largest power plants created by human hands. True, there is no need to talk about the direct use of the energy of volcanic eruptions - so far people do not have the opportunity to curb this rebellious element, and, fortunately, these eruptions are quite rare events. But these are manifestations of energy lurking in the depths of the earth, when only a tiny fraction of this inexhaustible energy finds an outlet through the fire-breathing vents of volcanoes. Iceland, a small European country, is completely self-sufficient in tomatoes, apples and even bananas! Numerous Icelandic greenhouses get their energy from the heat of the earth - there are practically no other local sources of energy in Iceland. But this country is very rich in hot springs and famous geysers-fountains of hot water, with the precision of a chronometer bursting out of the ground. And although non-Icelanders have priority in using the heat from underground sources, the inhabitants of this small northern country operate the underground boiler house very intensively.

Reykjavik, home to half of the country's population, is heated only from underground sources. But not only for heating people draw energy from the depths of the earth. Power stations using hot underground springs have been operating for a long time. The first such power plant, still very low-powered, was built in 1904 in the small Italian town of Larderello. Gradually, the power plant's capacity grew, more and more units were put into operation, new sources of hot water were used, and today the plant's capacity has already reached an impressive value - 360 thousand kilowatts. In New Zealand, there is such a power plant in the Wairakei region, with a capacity of 160 thousand kilowatts. 120 kilometers from San Francisco in the United States, a geothermal station with a capacity of 500 thousand kilowatts produces electricity.

Energy of inland waters

First of all, people learned to use the energy of rivers. But in the golden age of electricity, there was a revival of the water wheel in the form of a water turbine. Electric generators that produced energy had to be rotated, and this could be done quite successfully by water. We can assume that modern hydropower was born in 1891. The advantages of hydroelectric power plants are obvious - a constantly renewable energy reserve by nature itself, ease of operation, and absence of environmental pollution. And the experience of building and operating water wheels could be of great help to hydropower.

However, in order to drive the powerful hydro turbines into rotation, it is necessary to accumulate a huge supply of water behind the dam. To build a dam requires so much material to be stacked that the volume of the giant Egyptian pyramids would seem insignificant compared to it. In 1926, the Volkhovskaya hydroelectric power station was commissioned, the next one began the construction of the famous Dnieper. The energy policy of our country has led to the fact that we have a developed system of powerful hydroelectric stations. No other state can boast of such energy giants as the Volga, Krasnoyarsk and Bratsk, Sayano-Shushenskaya hydroelectric power plants. The power plant on the Rance River, consisting of 24 reversible turbine generators and with an output capacity of 240 megawatts, is one of the most powerful hydropower plants in France. Hydroelectric power plants are the most cost-effective energy source. But they have drawbacks - when electricity is transported through power lines, losses of up to 30% occur and environmentally hazardous electromagnetic radiation is created. So far, only a small part of the earth's hydropower potential serves people. Every year, huge streams of water from rains and melting snows flow into the seas unused. If it was possible to stop them with the help of dams, humanity would receive an additional colossal amount of energy.

Biomass energy

In the United States, in the mid-1970s, a team of ocean scientists, marine engineers and divers created the world's first ocean-going energy farm 12 meters below the sun-drenched Pacific Ocean near the city of San Clement. The farm grew giant Californian brown algae. According to project director Dr. Howard A. Wilcox of the Center for Marine and Ocean Systems Research in San Diego, California, “Up to 50% of the energy in these algae can be converted into fuel - natural gas methane. on an area of \u200b\u200bapproximately 100,000 acres (40,000 hectares), will be able to provide enough energy to fully meet the needs of an American city of 50,000 people. "

Biomass, in addition to algae, can also include the waste products of domestic animals. For example, on January 16, 1998, the newspaper "St. Petersburg Vedomosti" published an article entitled "Electricity ... from chicken droppings", which said that the subsidiary of the international Norwegian shipbuilding concern Kvaerner, located in the Finnish city of Tampere, seeks support EU for the construction in the British Northampton of a power plant operating ... on chicken manure. The project is part of the EU Thermie program, which envisages the development of new, unconventional, energy sources and methods of saving energy resources. The EU Commission allocated ECU 140 million on 13 January among 134 projects.

The power plant designed by the Finnish company will burn 120 thousand tons of chicken manure per year in furnaces, generating 75 million kilowatt-hours of energy.

Conclusion

A number of general trends and features in the development of the world's energy sector in the century that has begun can be distinguished.

1. In the XXI century. a significant increase in global energy consumption is inevitable, primarily in developing countries. In industrialized countries, energy consumption may stabilize at roughly the current level or even decline by the end of the century. According to the low forecast made by the authors, the world consumption of final energy may amount to 350 million TJ / year in 2050, and 450 million TJ / year in 2100 (with the current consumption of about 200 million TJ / year).

2. Humanity is sufficiently provided with energy resources for the 21st century, but the rise in energy prices is inevitable. Annual expenditures for world energy will increase 2.5-3 times by the middle of the century and 4-6 times by the end of the century compared to 1990. The average cost of a unit of final energy will increase in these periods, respectively, by 20-30 and 40- 80% (increases in fuel and energy prices could be even greater).

3. The introduction of global restrictions on CO2 emissions (the most important greenhouse gas) will greatly affect the energy structure of the regions and the world as a whole. Attempts to maintain global emissions at the current level should be recognized as unrealistic due to a difficult to resolve contradiction: additional costs for limiting CO2 emissions (about $ 2 trillion / year in the middle of the century and more than $ 5 trillion / year at the end of the century) will have to predominantly developing countries, which, meanwhile, are not “guilty” of the problem and do not have the necessary funds; the developed countries are unlikely to be willing and able to pay such costs. From the point of view of ensuring satisfactory energy structures in the regions of the world (and the costs of its development), the limitation in the second half of the century of global CO2 emissions to 12-14 Gt C / year, i.e. to a level approximately twice as high as in 1990. At the same time, the problem of allocating quotas and additional costs for limiting emissions between countries and regions remains.

4. The development of nuclear power is the most effective means of reducing CO 2 emissions. In scenarios where strict or moderate restrictions on CO2 emissions were introduced and there were no restrictions on nuclear power, the optimal scale of its development turned out to be extremely large. Another indicator of its effectiveness was the "price" of the nuclear moratorium, which, given strict restrictions on CO2 emissions, translates into an 80% increase in the cost of world energy (more than $ 8 trillion / year at the end of the 21st century). In this regard, scenarios with "moderate" restrictions on the development of nuclear power were considered to search for feasible alternatives.

5. An indispensable condition for the transition to sustainable development is assistance (financial, technical) to the most backward countries from developed countries. To achieve real results, such assistance should be provided in the coming decades, on the one hand, to accelerate the process of bringing the living standards of developing countries to the level of developed countries, and on the other, so that such assistance could still make up a noticeable share in the rapidly increasing total GDP of developing countries.

Literature

1. Weekly newspaper of the Siberian branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences N 3 (2289) January 19, 2001

2. Antropov P.Ya. Fuel and energy potential of the Earth. M., 1994

3. Odum G., Odum E. Energy basis of man and nature. M., 1998